UFC Vegas 51: Main Event Breakdown and Full Predictions
The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night with the rumblings still reverberating from UFC 273 last weekend.
This weekend’s card features a main event matchup of top-five welterweights, as fourth-ranked Vicente Luque faces off against fifth-ranked Belal Muhammad for the second time in their respective careers.
Plenty of young talent comprises the rest of the card, including a co-main event fight between Caio Borralho (10–1–1) and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13–0), who are both recent Dana White Contender Series alumni.
Noted names for the other 12 fights include Miguel Baeza, Pat Sabatini, William Knight and fan-favorite Chris Barnett.
Below is a breakdown of the key welterweight main event, as well as predictions for all 14 fights.
Vicente Luque (21–7–1) vs. Belal Muhammad (20–3)
It was November 12, 2016, when Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad met in the Octagon for the first time.
Muhammad was still fresh in his UFC career, splitting his first two fights for the promotion after arriving to the UFC a perfect 8–0 on the regional circuit.
A year earlier, Luque made his official UFC debut after competing on “The Ultimate Fighter 21” in 2015, the same season that produced current welterweight champion Kamaru Usman.
Like Muhammad, Luque lost his debut, a decision defeat to Michael Graves. He bounced back with three straight finishes before facing Muhammad.
The first fight between Muhammad and Luque produced little drama: it was over within two minutes after Luque knocked out Muhammad with a left hook and ground-and-pound.
“I’m a whole different fighter {than I was in 2018},” Muhammad told Yahoo’s Kevin Iole this week. “I had to go through that to get to where I am today…I just got caught with four-ounce gloves, it happens. I’ve come a long way since that fight.”
Luque is also not harkening back on his first fight with Muhammad, realizing that circumstances have changed.
“It’s hard to tell, but I prefer to forget the first fight because it was short notice, I fought two minutes, and that was it,” Luque said this week. “If I look at that fight and think about it, I’m going to underestimate Belal and that’s something I cannot do because he has evolved and he has great wins. So yeah, I prefer to forget that first fight.”
Both fighters have certainly grown since then, emerging as true contenders in the 170-pound division.
Since his first fight with Muhammad, Luque has gone 10–2, with his only losses coming to former two-time title challenger Stephen Thompson and current number-one contender Leon Edwards.
That stretch has included his recent four-fight winning streak that has propelled him to the top-five of the division.
During that stretch, Luque has defeated Niko Price, Randy Brown, former champion Tyron Woodley and Michael Chiesa, all by finish.
For his career, the 30-year-old Brazilian native has shown the ability to finish fights on the feet or on the ground. Out of his 21 professional wins, 11 have come by KO/TKO and eight by submission for a 90% career finishing rate.
Muhammad, 33, maintains a much more methodical approach, using calculated striking to score against opponents. In his 20 career wins, only five of them have come by finish and only two of those have occurred in the UFC.
It’s going to take an intelligent game plan from Muhammad to negate Luque’s power and finishing ability, something he failed to do the first time they fought.
To walk out victorious on Saturday night, Muhammad might have to revert to the strategy he used in his last fight against Stephen Thompson. He used a wrestling-heavy approach to counter Thompson’s tricky karate style, converting seven of nine takedown attempts for a control time of 11:57, according to UFC Stats.
Luque, however, is much more adept on the ground than Thompson. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt has finished his last two fights by first-round submission.
It’s a classic battle of power vs. precision that could come down to how long the fight lasts. The early rounds likely favor Luque’s finish-first mentality, while the later rounds should support Muhammad’s consistent work rate.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Luque as the -180 betting favorite.
The welterweight division might be the most interesting division in the UFC right now. The allure of Khamzat Chimaev, who just beat Gilbert Burns in a thrilling fight, and the impending title shot for Leon Edwards complicates the immediate direction of Luque and Muhammad after Saturday’s main event.
What will be ensured on Saturday night, though, is who is out of the running for a title shot, and who is squarely in the mix.
Prediction: Muhammad by decision.
Full Predictions
Prelims
Kevin Croom def Alatengheili
Istela Nunes def Sam Hughes
Trey Ogden def Jordan Leavitt
Martin Buday def Chris Barnett
Rafa Garcia def Jesse Ronson
Drakkar Klose def Brandon Jenkins
Pannie Kianzad def Lina Lansberg
Devin Clark def William Knight
Main Card
Mounir Lazzez def Ange Loosa
Pat Sabatini def TJ Laramie
Mayra Bueno Silva def Wu Yanan
Miguel Baeza def Andre Fialho
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev def Caio Borralho
Belal Muhammad def Vicente Luque