UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall — Storylines and Predictions
After striking success earlier this year, the UFC is back at the O2 Arena in London for a fight headlined again by some of England’s finest.
In the previous London card fought in March of this year, Englishman Tom Aspinall vaulted himself to the sixth spot in the UFC’s heavyweight rankings by defeating perennial contender Alexander Volkov by first-round submission.
Aspinall will look to make his case for a title shot against a man with similar aspirations, Curtis Blaydes, who is currently fourth in the division’s rankings and is looking to cement his own case for his first title shot.
The English-duo of Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett and Molly McCann will both be back in action, and the UFC’s 205-pound division will be on full display as notable light heavyweights Alexander Gustafsson, Paul Craig and Volkan Oezdemir are set to compete on the main card.
Plenty of storylines persist in the UFC’s return to London. Let’s look at a few of them in detail, before wrapping it up with predictions for all 13 fights.
Whose time is it: Curtis Blaydes or Tom Aspinall?
The time is now for both Curtis Blaydes, 31, and Tom Aspinall, 29, to make their case for a championship fight.
With the UFC’s heavyweight division still in flux following champion Francis Ngannou’s knee surgery and contract issues, it’s anybody guess on how the largest division in the sport will look both for the short and long-term.
One thing that can be said for sure is Saturday’s fight between Blaydes and Aspinall will help determine the future trajectory of the division.
Aspinall, who will once again be on home turf at the O2 Arena, has steamrolled every UFC opponent who has gotten in his way.
He’s finished all five of his UFC fights, with four coming in the first round. According to UFC Stats, Aspinall has landed 7.33 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.65.
Also a black belt in Brazilian Jitsu-Jitsu, Aspinall, has two of his three career submission wins in the UFC, with the last one coming against Volkov in March.
He’ll unquestionably have his toughest test to date on Saturday when he goes up against Blaydes, who is a heavyweight anomaly that prefers wrestling over striking.
Blaydes, who holds the UFC heavyweight record for takedowns with 62, has lost to only two men in the UFC: Ngannou (twice) and former two-time title challenger Derrick Lewis.
Blaydes, a former NJCAA National Champion wrestler, has gone 11–3–1 overall in the UFC, and is coming off a second-round knockout win over Chris Daukaus earlier this year.
It’s hard to overstate how important of a fight this is for both men. Aspinall has become the UFC’s preeminent heavyweight prospect in a division bereft of young talent.
On the other hand, Blaydes has failed to get over the hump in two number-one contender bouts to this point. Now fighting for the 16th time in the UFC, the clock is ticking on Blaydes’ championship window, and if he loses Saturday night, it’ll be difficult to build his stock back up.
It’s possible the UFC makes an interim title fight due to Ngannou’s layoff and uncertain future in the promotion.
And although Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic would likely get the first crack at it, and Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa still lurk in the title picture, the winner of Saturday’s main event will put themselves squarely in the mix of the UFC’s primetime division.
Does Paddy Pimblett keep the hype train rolling?
Besides Khamzat Chimaev, there has not been a fighter in recent memory that has rose to superstardom quite like Paddy Pimblett.
The 27-year-old Englishman has riveted fans with his brash and brazen personality, and he’s backed it up — so far.
A former featherweight champion in the Cage Warriors promotion, Pimblett’s first two UFC opponents have a combined UFC record of 2–6, and Pimblett got rocked in his first fight against Luigi Vendramini.
To his credit, Pimblett bounced back and finished Vendramini in the first round. His second fight wasn’t as close; he won by submission in the first round against Kazula Vargas.
Pimblett will have a slighter tougher test against Jordan Leavitt (10–1) on Saturday. Leavitt is 4–1 in the UFC and has finished six out of his 10 professional wins by submission.
If Pimblett wants to make a dent into the thick of the UFC’s deep lightweight division, and keep the proverbial hype train rolling, he’ll have to get past Leavitt and make a statement in doing so.
Which light heavyweight will step up?
Two veteran-laden matchups in the UFC’s 205-pound division stand out on the main card as ones to watch.
Kicking off the main card is eighth-ranked Paul Craig, who has finished four straight fights within 10 minutes, taking on former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir, who has dropped two straight fights.
Popular light heavyweight Alexander Gustafsson will make his return after almost exactly two years against 11th-ranked Nikita Krylov, who has gone 8–7 in 15 career UFC fights.
The light heavyweight division is arguably the UFC’s shallowest, and new champion Jiri Prochazka is in need of somebody to emerge from the pack as a challenger.
The dearth of talent in the division gives these four veteran light heavyweights a chance to make a last run at the title, and it’ll be interesting to see which one steps up on Saturday.
What about the prelims?
Up to this point, everything has been about the main card, but the prelims offer their fair share of intriguing fights as well. The following are three fighters to keep an eye on during Saturday’s preliminary portion of the card:
- Muhammad Mokaev (7–0), a flyweight from Buynaksk, Republic of Dagestan, has never lost in his professional or amateur career and submitted Cody Durden in 58 seconds during his UFC debut in March earlier this year. He’ll take on Charles Johnson (11–2), who is making his UFC debut on Saturday.
- Jonathan Pearce (12–4), nicknamed JSP, has a knack for a relentless pace, averaging 6.79 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, according to UFC Stats. He’s won four of his five fights in the promotion, and he’ll look for his fourth straight win Saturday against veteran featherweight Makwan Amirkhani.
- Marc Diakiese (15–5), who fights out of England, has had an inconsistent UFC career but has shown potential in the past. He owns wins over Joe Duffy and Lando Vannata and fought to a competitive decision loss to rising contender Rafael Fiziev in a Fight of the Night bout in 2020. He’ll look to gain some momentum in the lightweight division against Damir Hadzovic on Saturday night.
Full Predictions
Prelims
Nicolas Dalby def Claudio Silva
Mandy Bohm def Victoria Leonardo
Jai Herbert def Kyle Nelson
Muhammad Mokaev def Charles Johnson
Jonathan Pearce def Makwan Amirkhani
Nathaniel Wood def Charles Rosa
Marc Diakiese def Damir Hadzovic
Ludovit Klein def Mason Jones
Main Card
Volkan Oezdemir def Paul Craig
Hannah Goldy def Molly McCann
Nikita Krylov def Alexander Gustafsson
Paddy Pimblett def Jordan Leavitt
Jack Hermansson def Chris Curtis
Tom Aspinall def Curtis Blaydes