Is This the “Golden Year” for the Dallas Cowboys?
For Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s 29th birthday last month, he stated his plans for a “golden year.”
Translation: He wants to break the trend of mediocrity and take the Cowboys past the NFL’s Divisional Round for the first time since 1995, and ideally, to Glendale, Arizona for Super Bowl LVII.
Are the Cowboys primed for a “golden” season or another middling one that has become the norm for the better part of two decades?
Let’s take a look at three reasons for optimism and three for pessimism before wrapping it up with the most likely outcome for the 2022 Cowboys:
Three Reasons for Cowboys Optimism
- Strength of Schedule
Some teams are just handed a better card when it comes to the league’s scheduling algorithm. Such is the case of the Cowboys’ 2022 schedule, which is the number one reason for optimism, at least during the regular season.
According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Cowboys have the 10th-most favorable schedule based on projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
The Cowboys open the season with a matchup against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and play each of the previous Super Bowl contestants, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, in the first five games of the season.
After the first five games, the Cowboys play four more games against 2021 playoff teams, with two coming against their divisional rival Philadelphia Eagles and the others against two teams who lost their number-one wide receivers this offseason: Green Bay Packers (Davante Adams) and Tennessee Titans (A.J. Brown).
Among the Cowboys’ gimme games this season are matchups against the teams who held the top three picks in this offseason’s 2022 NFL Draft: Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions and Houston Texans.
They also have a game against my early pick to have the worst record this year (Chicago Bears) and winnable non-divisional matchups against the Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts.
The rest of Dallas’ schedule is comprised of NFC East opponents, which leads to my next reason for optimism:
2. NFC East
Is there a division worse than the NFC East?
The only two arguments would seemingly be the AFC South or NFC South, but the AFC South had the number-one seed last year (Titans) and a team that should’ve made the playoffs if not for a laughable end-season collapse (Colts).
And being that the Bucs still have Brady and a bevy of offensive weapons and the Saints should be competitive, it leaves the Cowboys’ division as arguably the worst going into the 2022 season.
There are certainly reasons for hope for the three other NFC East teams. For starters, each of the three teams are on the Sharp Football Analysis’ top-10 easiest schedule list, with the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles at the number one and two spots, respectively (Washington Commanders are sixth).
The Eagles made the playoffs as a seven seed last year and got considerably better this offseason on both sides of the ball with the addition of Brown on offense and Jordan Davis, Hasson Reddick and James Bradberry, among others, on defense.
The Giants cleaned house and hired former Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll as head coach to lead a team that has a mix of explosive offensive weapons and the infrastructure of a defense that finished ninth in points against in 2020.
The Commanders may still have the best defensive front in the league when healthy and added Jahan Dotson in the first round, which will ostensibly give them more stability in the receiver room.
But, when looking through a corroborating lens, the Cowboys are the most proven of the NFC East teams, which leads to the next reason for optimism:
3. Blue-Chip Talent
Blue-chip talent is players who have proven themselves to be among the best at their positions in sports, and the Cowboys have six bonafide blue-chippers.
Starting with the most important position in the sport, the Cowboys easily have the best and most accomplished quarterback in the division.
Prescott may not be in the first tier of elite quarterbacks in the league, but he’s at or near the top-10. Are the other quarterbacks in the division — Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz, even in the top-20?
They also have arguably the best receiver in the division (CeeDee Lamb), guard (Zach Martin), tackle (Tyron Smith), cornerback (Trevon Diggs) and defensive player (Micah Parsons), while a healthy Demarcus Lawrence is among the best pass rushers in the NFC East.
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard also form the best backfield combination at running back in the division, although Elliott has been a shell of his previous self the past two seasons.
The rest of the division’s proven top-end talent? You can argue Terry McLaurin, A.J. Brown, Jason Kelce, Lane Johnson, Darius Slay and Saquon Barkley, and maybe a few others, but nobody has the conglomeration of blue-chippers that the Cowboys have.
At the end of the day, healthy talent drives the league, and if the Cowboys stay in good health, they have the most high-end talent in the division — and it’s not close.
Three Reasons for Cowboys Pessimism
- Offseason Losses
Although the Cowboys have proven, All-Pro level talent at the top of the roster, they lost some key pieces this offseason that chipped away at their depth and they subsequently failed to find adequate replacements for them.
Among their major losses this offseason: Amari Cooper (Browns), Randy Gregory (Broncos), La’el Collins (Bengals), Cedrick Wilson and Conor Williams (Dolphins).
The Cowboys’ replacement plan? At receiver, the Cowboys will rely on Lamb and the return of Michael Gallup, who tore his ACL in Week 17 last year and won’t be available for the Cowboys’ opener.
Backup running back Tony Pollard is also being “tutored” at the slot receiver position, so the Cowboys could rely on him more in the passing game this season.
The other receivers they will be relying upon include Noah Brown (39 career receptions), James Washington (out 6–10 weeks due to injury), third-round pick Jalen Tolbert and a mix of others who have a total of zero NFL receptions.
To replace Gregory, the Cowboys will hope that Dorance Armstrong or rookie second-round pick Sam Williams can emerge or that Dante Fowler Jr. can rekindle some of his 2019 magic when he had 11.5 sacks.
Those don’t seem like logical substitutes for players the Cowboys relied on heavily last year, and that could especially be true for their offensive line.
The offensive line might be the biggest question mark after Collins and Williams left in free agency. Let’s dive into the O-line in more detail in the next section:
2. Offensive Line
Besides Martin, the Cowboys have a lot of questions still left to address on a positional group that used to be the envy of the league.
Tyron Smith, while still effective when healthy, hasn’t played a full season since 2015 and already hurt his ankle during a joint practice with the Denver Broncos last week.
Right now, the other three projected O-line starters are Connor McGovern, Tyler Biadasz and Terence Steele.
Steele ranked 58th among tackles last season, according to Pro Football Focus’s grading system, but only allowed two sacks and should be fine handling the full-time right tackle duties.
But McGovern and Biadasz are the big question marks on the line, and first-round rookie Tyler Smith may not be a formidable option right away.
The Cowboys drafted Tyler Smith in the first round to start at left guard and potentially become Smith’s heir apparent at left tackle, but the fact that he has not supplanted McGovern at guard, who has been unspectacular in his brief playing time, is telling.
Smith also had two holding penalties in last Saturday’s preseason game against the Broncos, which is not a good sign considering he had 16 penalties last season at a non-Power Five school in Tulsa.
Biadasz struggled to handle the full-time center role last season and was also a penalty-culprit for the Cowboys, ranking first among NFL centers with 11, according to Pro Football Focus.
The Cowboys will miss Collins, and even though Williams had 15 penalties last season, he only allowed one sack and was a steadying presence at left guard.
Their replacement plan involves hoping Tyron Smith stays healthy, internal growth from two unproven interior linemen and a rookie who had more penalties than Williams did last season.
What used to be the Cowboys’ biggest strength may now be their biggest weakness.
3. Mike McCarthy
Is there a single Dallas Cowboys fan who is passionate about Mike McCarthy being their head coach?
If you watched his decision-making over his first two seasons at the helm, you can’t possibly be.
It was all showcased in the Cowboys’ disheartening Wild Card loss to the San Francisco 49ers last season when the infamous QB draw and questionable fourth-down play-calling encapsulated a broader issue of game management from the former Super-Bowl winning coach.
The Cowboys also led the league with 127 penalties last season, which is an issue that directly correlates to discipline, which directly correlates to the coaching staff.
Amid Sean Payton rumors this offseason, the Cowboys still kept McCarthy at the top of the coaching staff. And while Kellen Moore and Dan Quinn remain as coordinators, McCarthy’s game management has cost the Cowboys in big moments in the past, and barring a change in approach, could cost Dallas again in its pursuit of playoff success.
What’s The Most Likely Outcome for the 2022 Dallas Cowboys?
The Cowboys are helped by a favorable schedule and a weak division, which should help drive them to double-digit wins for the second straight season.
The Rams are the defending Super Bowl champs, the Bucs are a legitimate threat as long as Brady is still leading them, and the Packers have Aaron Rodgers and a solid defense.
But you can argue that the Cowboys are the leader of the second tier of NFC teams, and if things break right, a Super Bowl run is not out of the question.
The more likely outcome, though? The Cowboys win 10 or 11 games, play a close Wild-Card game and get no further than the Divisional Round.
The depth, offensive line issues and McCarthy’s incompetency in high-pressure situations means the Cowboys must rely on all of their top-end talent to stay healthy for a full season to achieve any kind of playoff success.
They must couple that with some lucky breaks in the playoffs — like avoiding teams with a decisive coaching advantage or better quarterback— to get to where they haven’t been in over a quarter of a century.
There’s a world where the Cowboys climb over the perpetual mountain of mediocrity and prove the doubters wrong this season.
But the contrasting view — one that has become all too familiar for Cowboys fans — seems the likeliest.
Prediction: 11–6, lose in the Divisional Round